Kazakhstan's Economy Grows 4.2% Driven by Manufacturing and Private Investment

The non-resource sector showed a 5.4% increase, with construction, manufacturing, transport services, and trade making up over 75% of the total gross domestic product (GDP) growth. Despite this expansion in other sectors, inflation remains high, although it slightly eased in September.

Private investment is a key factor in this growth, reaching 16.1 trillion tenge (approximately US$35.7 billion), marking a 7% year-on-year increase. Zhumangarin noted that private investments surged by 18.2%. Inflows of gross foreign direct investment were recorded at $9.4 billion in the first half of the year, with manufacturing seeing a notable rise of 40.1%, followed by construction at 32%, information and communications at 29.2%, healthcare at 20.4%, and agriculture at 9.1%.

Shifts in the economic structure are also evident, with the oil sector contributing 7.8% to GDP in 2025, whereas manufacturing's share climbed to 14.1%, and mining's share reached 12.4%.

Manufacturing output soared by 8.6% in the first nine months, particularly in the light industry sector, which increased by 62.4%. Chemical production grew by 23.4%, and machinery manufacturing rose by 22.8%. Deputy Minister of Industry and Construction Kuandyk Kazhkenov attributed this growth to the establishment of new production facilities, with 106 industrial projects launched this year, generating approximately 8,000 permanent jobs.

These projects have enabled domestic production of new goods, including sodium sulfate and drip irrigation systems. An additional 200 investment projects valued at 1.7 trillion tenge (US$3.77 billion) are planned for completion by the end of 2026.

Inflation saw a decrease to 9.3% in September from 9.8% in August. The government and National Bank are coordinating efforts to mitigate inflationary pressures, with the First Deputy Chairman of the National Bank, Yerulan Zhamau­bayev, noting a rise in the business activity index to 50.4 points in September.

Kazakhstan's financial reserves improved, with gold and foreign exchange reserves totaling $66.2 billion at the end of September, a 1.2% increase since the start of the year. National Fund assets also rose to $66.7 billion, growing by 4.3%.

Exports reached $55.3 billion, up 25.4% in the first half of 2026. In addition, transit cargo through Kazakhstan increased by 13.1% in the first nine months, highlighting the importance of the nation's transport infrastructure. Rail transport carried 241.7 million tons, marking a 3% increase, while road freight rose by 5.6% to 270.4 million tons. Airlines transported 12.4 million passengers during this period, a rise of 4.2%.

To address electricity shortages, Kazakhstan generated 91.7 billion kilowatt-hours in the first nine months of 2026 and plans to add around 2.4 gigawatts of conventional power capacity this year. Key projects include modernizing Almaty's CHPP-2 and CHPP-3 and constructing a 1,000-megawatt power plant in the Turkistan Region. Renewable energy facilities contributed significantly, producing 7.8 billion kilowatt-hours, with seven facilities launched this year adding 212.6 megawatts of capacity. The government plans to complete two solar and one hydropower plants by year-end.