A report from Oxford Economics, released on September 25, 2026, highlights the disproportionate risk that proposed tariffs on Canadian auto imports could pose to US jobs and GDP, particularly in key states like Kentucky, Michigan, and Indiana.
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The report discusses President Donald Trump's proposed 50% tariff on imports of autos, trucks, and car parts from Canada, which, if enacted in 2027, could affect US jobs linked to Canadian auto manufacturing. It estimates that Canadian manufacturers' purchases of parts and goods from US companies support approximately 0.12% of US jobs. The proposed tariff could threaten some of these positions.
Kentucky is identified as the most vulnerable state, with job exposure 3.7 times higher than the national average due to its strong connections to Canadian auto procurement. Michigan follows closely at 3.5 times and Indiana at 3.2 times the national exposure.
The report also indicates that most affected jobs will be in sectors outside of automotive manufacturing. This situation echoes the results of the 25% steel tariff imposed by the US in 2018, which initially protected the steel industry but led to job growth slowdown and declines in sectors dependent on steel during Trump's second term when the tariff was increased to 50%.