A study conducted by researchers at the New York Federal Reserve has found that tariffs implemented during Donald Trump's presidency increased consumer goods prices by 2.9% as of February 2026. The analysis indicates that prices would have seen a slight decrease if these tariffs had not been enacted.
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The research team, comprising New York Fed economists Mary Amiti and Sebastian Heise along with Columbia University professor David E. Weinstein, evaluated 67 categories of non-oil consumer goods, avoiding services, and presented their findings in a blog post on Monday. They determined that each percentage point increase in average tariff rates raised consumer prices by approximately 0.25% in the following year.
The study identified three primary channels through which tariffs exerted price pressures. About two-thirds of the price increase stemmed directly from higher costs for imported goods. The remaining third impacted U.S. goods through two channels: domestic manufacturers faced increased costs for imported materials, and some raised prices due to reduced foreign competition.
The effects on consumer prices from tariffs materialized more rapidly for imports, while the impact on domestically produced goods took between nine to twelve months to be fully realized. Consequently, the total effect of tariffs on consumer prices generally emerged within a year.
The report highlighted that the peak contribution of tariffs to the consumer goods price level reached nearly 3% in February 2026. This figure declined to around 2% by August 2026, following a Supreme Court ruling that invalidated tariffs imposed under emergency powers, transitioning to a reduced 10% charge on imports.
Looking ahead, the researchers anticipate that tariffs will again contribute to goods price inflation by mid-2027, driven by existing tariffs on Canadian goods and a planned increase on Canadian automobiles set for January 2027. Although the inflation impact is expected to lessen, consumer goods prices will remain elevated compared to pre-tariff levels.
The study, titled "The Anatomy of Tariff Pass-Through into Consumer Prices," initially released in August 2026 and updated in September, found that roughly 26% of any tariff increase ultimately affects consumer prices. Notably, about 90% of the tariff at the import level is reflected in increased prices, suggesting that foreign exporters bear minimal portions of the costs.