The world population reached 8.17 billion in February 2025, with a birth and death occurring every 9 seconds on average, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. In 2024, merchandise trade grew by 2.9%, recovering from a prior 1.2% increase. However, 2025 introduced a challenging trade landscape marked by several new tariff announcements from the United States, which lowered growth expectations for merchandise trade volume by nearly 3 percentage points. Despite a projected contraction of 0.2%, the World Trade Organization (WTO) anticipated trade would remain resilient amidst disruptions caused by geopolitical tensions and regional conflicts.

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These tensions are expected to impact global economic growth significantly, particularly for low-income economies. However, the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) could enhance global trade, with estimates suggesting a growth of nearly 40% in goods and services trade by 2040, according to the WTO.

The International Monetary Fund projected a world economic growth of 3.3% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027. Global inflation is anticipated to decrease to 3.8% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, influenced by technology investments and adaptive private sector strategies.

In 2025, U.S. exports of goods and services totaled $3.43 trillion, comprised of approximately $2.2 trillion in goods and $1.23 trillion in services. The services sector experienced a surplus of $339.5 billion, while the goods deficit rose by 2.1% to $25.5 billion. Overall, goods and services imports hit $4.33 trillion, leading to a total deficit of $901.5 billion, a minor improvement from 2024.

The largest U.S. export markets in 2025 included Mexico ($337.96 billion), Canada ($329.80 billion), and China ($106.31 billion), with the European Union collectively registering the highest U.S. exports at $414.43 billion.

Despite remaining a significant trading partner, U.S. trade with China generated a goods deficit of approximately $202.07 billion, down from $295.51 billion previously. U.S. national trade deficits were reported with other major partners, including Mexico, the EU, Canada, and Vietnam. The United States holds a projected GDP of $31.1 trillion and had about 342.4 million residents in 2025.

In California, goods exports reached $188.40 billion in 2025, a 2.4% increase from 2024. This constituted around 9.1% of total U.S. goods exports, supporting approximately 582,000 jobs in the state, with wages averaging about 18% above the national average. Exports to free trade agreement (FTA) partners accounted for 41.91% of California’s total exports, amounting to $78.97 billion.

Mexico was California's largest goods export market at $34.91 billion, marking a 4.3% increase. Exports to Canada dropped to $16.96 billion, a decline of nearly 13%. California also remained a leading exporter to Asia, with significant exports to Taiwan, Japan, and Mainland China.

In terms of imports, California imported $488.2 billion worth of goods, primarily from China, Taiwan, and Mexico. The state saw its largest trade deficit with China at $65.67 billion, while it maintained a small surplus with Canada. The full extent of trade dynamics, including strengths and weaknesses across sectors, can be found in the U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Monthly Update from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.