Affinity Solutions has announced an enhancement to its CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor, significantly expanding its dataset and improving its methodology for analyzing U.S. consumer spending. The enhancements, revealed on October 8, 2026, aim to improve representation of the U.S. population and align the Retail Monitor's categories more closely with Census data.
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The card dataset behind the Retail Monitor has grown from 26 million to 120 million annual cards, representing about 50% of the U.S. population. This expansion is intended to provide a more consistent view of consumer retail spending trends. The Retail Monitor, initially launched in November 2023, tracks changes in U.S. retail sales on a monthly and annual basis, offering insights into consumer behavior.
With the increased scale, the Retail Monitor can now report retail sales in dollar amounts by sector, in addition to the percentage changes previously published. According to Mark Mathews, Chief Economist and Executive Director of Research at the National Retail Federation, this updated dataset will provide a more accurate view of consumer spending and serve as a valuable validation tool alongside traditional economic strategies.
Moreover, the updated methodology includes a Bayesian calibration approach that utilizes historical Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) data. This method enhances the dataset's consistency with MRTS while maintaining the timeliness and accuracy that characterize Retail Monitor reports. The reliance on real credit and debit card purchase data means that these reports do not require revisions over time, also addressing variability caused by changes in panel composition.