China to Release Inflation Data and Trade Figures on October 14, 2026

In August, consumer prices rose by 0.8% year-on-year, up from 0.5% and aligning with forecasts, while the 0.4% monthly increase exceeded expectations. Similarly, producer prices increased by 3.8% year-on-year, compared to 3.5%, with China's statistics bureau highlighting the influence of rising energy prices.

Three key areas will be under scrutiny. The first is the producer prices, which reflect imported inflation driven by higher crude oil and non-ferrous metal prices affecting domestic petrochemical and smelting costs. A continued increase would suggest that the effects of the oil shock are still being absorbed into Chinese input costs.

Secondly, there is the pass-through of these costs to consumers. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) remains below Beijing’s informal target of approximately 3%. Analysts caution that weak conditions in the property sector and subdued consumer spending complicate the ability of downstream manufacturers to pass on increased costs, potentially leading factory prices back towards deflation as support fades.

Lastly, core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, will provide insight into whether domestic demand is strengthening or if energy prices are the primary driver.

In addition to inflation data, China will also release trade figures for September. In August, exports rose by 18.6% year-on-year and imports increased by 21.7% in yuan terms, with imports outpacing exports for the sixth consecutive month. The dollar-denominated trade surplus was approximately $119 billion.

For the markets, a significant rise in producer prices may suggest that higher goods prices from China are being transmitted globally, contrasting with years of export-driven disinflation. However, a soft CPI would spotlight the challenges of weak household demand and reinforce the argument for further policy easing.