On Wednesday, September 30, 2026, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI) will release data on Japan’s industrial production for August, along with forecasts for September and October. Analysts from Mace News project a month-on-month increase of 1.7%, with estimates ranging from 0.3% to 2.0%. This follows a revised July figure showing a decrease of 0.2%, down from an initial report of a 0.1% increase, and a year-on-year rise of 7.0%, compared to a revised 3.9% increase for July.
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The anticipated rebound in August is attributed to ongoing demand for artificial intelligence-related products and favorable signals from domestic manufacturing conditions. The downward revision of the July output reflected declines in the production of pharmaceuticals, alcoholic beverages, and tobacco.
While the domestic economy is grappling with uncertainty due to persistent inflation and a weaker yen driving up import costs, the overall economic footing has remained robust. METI's forecast from August 31 indicated a potential rise of 3.1% in August output when adjusted for forecast biases, although September projections suggest a reversal with an expected decrease of 4.2%. At that time, METI described the situation in industrial output as "taking one step forward and one step back."
The predicted rise for August marks the third consecutive month of year-on-year growth, reinforcing confidence in the industrial sector.