Vlad Tenev, CEO of Robinhood Markets, believes that prediction markets are shifting, with sports-related contracts potentially becoming a minority in the coming years. In the second quarter, Robinhood reported $156 million in revenue from prediction markets, a more than tenfold increase from the previous year. By August 2026, the volume of event contracts traded surged to 15 times the levels from a year earlier. Tenev noted on CNBC that crypto-related contracts are increasing significantly, suggesting a future where sports contracts may not dominate the market.
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Other platforms, such as Kalshi, are also experiencing this trend. Kalshi, which collaborates with Robinhood, saw its crypto prediction market volume rise from $337 million in January 2026 to approximately $7.5 billion by August. In the week ending September 20, sports contracts constituted 21% of Kalshi's trading volume, while Bitcoin contracts accounted for 13%, with bundled outcome bets making up 62%.
Kalshi's crypto contracts typically involve short-term predictions, asking traders if Bitcoin will reach a specific price within a short time frame. Traders can buy contracts for as little as a penny, with potential payouts of $1 if predictions are correct. However, predicting short-term price movements for cryptocurrencies is notoriously challenging, similar to stock predictions. Prediction market operators benefit from transaction fees regardless of whether the underlying cryptocurrencies increase or decrease in value.
Despite the growth in prediction markets, there is little reason to believe they significantly impact cryptocurrency prices or that participating in such markets is a sound investment strategy. A study by the Centre for Economic Policy Research in February 2026 found an average pre-fee loss of 20% per contract analyzed, indicating the probabilities implied by these contracts are often misleading. For long-term investors, the outcome of short-term, timed predictions does not necessarily inform a robust investment strategy.
While Tenev's forecast suggests an expansion of crypto price predictions, it does not change fundamental investment principles. The broader crypto market is likely to grow, naturally leading to an increase in predictions about prices. For investors seeking exposure to the prediction market dynamics, purchasing Robinhood stock may be an effective approach, as the company profits from each transaction. For those focused solely on cryptocurrency, maintaining ownership of coins remains a viable strategy, as their value is expected to appreciate over the long term, independent of prediction market trends.