The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has reduced its forecast for Turkey’s economic growth in 2026 to 2.7%, marking the lowest rate since 2020. This adjustment is attributed to the economic repercussions from the conflict in Iran, along with rising prices for energy and fertilizers. The latest report, titled “Navigating Successive Shocks,” also revised Turkey’s growth forecast for 2027 down to 3.6%, from a previous estimate of 3.8%.
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The OECD's prior projection estimated Turkey’s growth for 2026 at 3.1%. Despite the pressures from high energy and fertilizer costs, the organization expects Turkey’s disinflation trend to persist, forecasting inflation rates of 31.5% in 2026 and 24.7% in 2027. The anticipated easing of monetary policy in emerging markets like Turkey and Brazil is expected to bolster growth.
On a global scale, the OECD slightly raised its economic growth forecast to 2.9% for 2026, up by 0.1 percentage points from its earlier projection, following a 3.4% expansion in 2025. While growth decelerated in the first half of the year, many global economies have remained robust despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a surge in artificial intelligence investments.
The US economy is predicted to grow by 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, while the eurozone is expected to see a modest growth of 1% in each of those years. China’s economy is forecast to expand by 4.5% in 2026 and 4.2% in 2027. In contrast, India is projected to achieve the highest growth rate at 7.8%, with Indonesia following at 5.2%. Conversely, Saudi Arabia is expected to experience a contraction of 1.8% due to declining oil production and exports linked to the Middle East conflict.
The OECD cautioned that the global economic outlook heavily relies on achieving a sustainable resolution to the ongoing Middle East conflict, as production disruptions have escalated refinery margins and impacted consumer prices. Energy and agricultural commodity prices remain elevated, partly due to supply challenges stemming from extreme weather. The organization highlighted that there is significant uncertainty regarding its forecasts, particularly within energy markets. Global inflation is projected to rise in the short term before stabilizing in 2027.