Global trade showed unexpected resilience in the first half of 2026, despite disturbances from the Middle East conflict. This resilience is attributed to adaptive supply chains and significant investment in artificial intelligence (AI), which has bolstered goods trade. However, the effects of the conflict have not been uniform, impacting services trade and various regions differently. As a result, the World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its forecast for merchandise trade growth, expecting an increase of 3.9% in 2026, up from the previous estimate of 1.9%. This projection is anticipated to increase further to 4.1% in 2027.
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Merchandise trade volume expanded by 3.5% in the first half of 2026, demonstrating the ability of supply chains to adjust to shocks in energy, fertilizer, and transport sectors. Notably, crude oil exports from the Middle East plummeted by approximately 24%, while liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports decreased by 47%. Nevertheless, other suppliers compensated, limiting the overall decline in global crude oil exports to around 6% and just 1% for LNG. Fertilizer imports, while affected, showed resilience, with nitrogenous imports only slightly below averages and phosphatic imports increasing by 2.2%. Global container throughput rose by 3.9% year-to-date through July.
Investment in AI-related goods became a significant growth driver, contributing 47% to global merchandise trade growth in the first half of 2026. AI-related product trade surged by 67% year-on-year, marking a continuation of rapid growth seen in prior years.
In contrast, commercial services trade experienced mixed results. Although it grew by 14% in the first quarter and 10% in the second quarter of 2026, growth slowed in the latter quarter due to disruptions in transport and travel services linked to the conflict. International tourist arrivals dipped slightly by 0.8% in the second quarter.
Merchandise trade projections now suggest that global merchandise trade volume will rise by 3.9% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027, alongside global GDP growth projections of 2.6% and 2.9%, respectively. AI investment is expected to drive merchandise trade further, with global spending on AI infrastructure anticipated to rise by at least 30% in 2026.
Regional trade growth projections reveal disparities, with Asia expected to lead in export growth at 9.9% for 2026. North America and Africa will follow with approximate growth rates of 5.7% and 5.6%, respectively. In contrast, Europe is projected to see a slight decline, while the Middle East faces a substantial contraction of 17.2% as a result of ongoing conflicts.
The outlook for commercial services trade has also weakened, with expectations of a 3.3% growth in 2026, down from an earlier estimation of 4.8%. Transport and travel sectors may only see modest growth this year, primarily due to increased energy costs and disruptions.
In terms of regional services trade prospects, Europe is expected to achieve the highest growth rate in 2026 at 4.6%, whereas the Middle East is forecast to see a significant decline in services exports by 10.3%. The complete report and detailed statistics are available through the WTO Stats portal.