Traders on the prediction market platform Kalshi believe that inflation likely peaked for 2026, although they expect it to remain at elevated levels. The September consumer price index (CPI), set to be released on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, is anticipated to show a 3.6% year-over-year increase, according to a consensus estimate from FactSet. This figure represents a rise from the 3.4% increase reported in August.
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Analysts on Kalshi assign slightly less than one-in-three odds that inflation will reach new highs later in 2026. Previously, inflation reached its peak at 4.2% in May this year.
Contracts on Kalshi allow traders to speculate on whether the CPI will exceed various thresholds in September or at any point during 2026, with outcomes based on official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to remain steady at 2.4% year over year, consistent with economists' estimates. However, traders predict that core inflation will stay high for the remainder of 2026, with only a 6% chance that it will dip below 2.2% this year. The last time annual core inflation was below that level was prior to the inflation spike that began in 2021.