Global Trade Reaches Record US$35 Trillion Driven by AI in 2025

UNCTAD forecasts that trade in goods and services is set to grow approximately 4% in 2026, a slight decrease from the 4.4% growth seen in the previous year. This growth is attributed to the continued expansion of digital infrastructure and AI technology, with data centers recognized as significant drivers of trade dynamics.

The report highlighted that trade in AI products surged by 22% to US$4.2 trillion in 2025, representing 42% of the overall growth in global merchandise trade. The growth forecast for 2026 has improved since May, when expectations of only 1.5% to 2.5% growth were projected.

Now, global merchandise trade is expected to grow between 4.5% to 5% in 2026, consistent with growth rates from the previous year. Should demand for AI products decline, UNCTAD warns that the growth in services trade could exceed that of goods by 2027.

UNCTAD’s findings also noted that despite predictions of economic fragmentation, new trade patterns and production networks are creating opportunities for developing nations. However, the report indicated that disparities between developing and developed markets are widening, as only a few rapidly growing Asian economies like China and India are keeping pace with the average GDP per capita of developed countries.

In 2026, Asia is anticipated to contribute 59% of global GDP growth, largely concentrated in East Asia. The report observed that while developing economies are expected to grow by 4%, this is a decrease from 4.7% the prior year, indicating that global economic resilience remains fragile and uneven. Developed economies are projected to see a modest growth of 1.6% in 2026.

UNCTAD attributed the widening gap to the emergence of 'geoeconomics,' where countries leverage trade and technology for strategic purposes, especially in sectors deemed crucial for national security. This shift complicates traditional pathways for developing economies aiming for higher income through industrialization and global value chain integration.

Pedro Manuel Moreno, acting secretary-general of UNCTAD, stated that while opportunities now lie in high-value sectors like AI and clean technologies, entering these markets remains challenging. Developed economies currently secure about 70% of greenfield investments in these sectors, with developing economies lagging in value addition, particularly in sectors like critical minerals.

Nevertheless, some Global South economies are becoming regional leaders in trade integration, exemplified by Brazil's Pix instant payment system, which expands trade capabilities across South America, highlighting new avenues for regional cooperation.