Morocco is on track to achieve significant economic growth, driven by its agriculture, tourism, and public investment sectors. This growth is expected to exceed that of its peers in the Middle East and North Africa (MENAAP), where the broader economy is projected to decline by 2.1% in 2026 after a 3.3% expansion in 2025.
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In contrast, the Gulf Cooperation Council economies are anticipated to grow by 4.3%, despite disruptions to energy supplies and trade routes exacerbated by regional conflicts. Factors such as improved rainfall have bolstered Morocco's agricultural output, while continued government spending and tourism contribute to overall economic activity.
However, as the positive effects of last year’s agricultural performance begin to diminish, a slight weakening in momentum is expected. Additionally, rising energy costs may impact household and business expenditures. Inflation is projected to rise modestly to 1.2% this year and reach 1.8% in 2027, up from 0.8% in 2025. Morocco's fiscal deficit is anticipated to hold steady at 3.5% of GDP in 2026, with a slight reduction to 3.3% in 2027. Meanwhile, the current account deficit is expected to widen from 2.1% of GDP last year to 3.6% this year, and then narrow to 2.4% in 2027.
The World Bank's assessment of Morocco goes beyond immediate economic metrics, considering the potential impact of artificial intelligence on the regional economy. Should regional unrest lessen, a substantial uptick in economic growth could be realized by 2027. Excluding Iran, MENAAP growth could reach 7.8%, aided by the restoration of oil and gas production and the reopening of trade channels after periods of instability.
However, the World Bank warns against conflating a rapid rebound with long-term productivity increases. Much of the initial growth may simply reflect the resumption of activities that were disrupted by conflict. The challenge ahead lies in developing more resilient and productive economies capable of withstanding future shocks. The report indicates that AI may play a vital role in this process, expecting it to enhance productivity in the region, while less than 10% of jobs are considered highly vulnerable to automation in the near term.