As of July, Mexico's commercial banking delinquency ratio has reached 2.49%, the highest since 2022, influenced by increasing default rates in microcredits and personal loans. Although regulatory authorities and rating agencies do not foresee systemic risk, commercial lenders are experiencing higher costs related to credit risk, leading to a 20.9% year-over-year increase in preventive loss reserves in real terms. This shift in asset quality is impacting commercial banks, non-bank financial intermediaries, and fintech lenders across the country, prompting a move toward data-driven credit collection strategies.
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The Non-Performing Loan Index (IMOR) indicates that the total commercial banking portfolio's delinquency rate rose from 2.10% in mid-2025. The National Banking and Securities Commission (CNBV) has reported these figures, suggesting that the increase in non-performing assets is causing banks to reconsider their credit risk management practices. Financial institutions are beginning to allocate more capital to risk reserves as the deterioration of credit quality becomes evident before loans formally go into default.
Víctor Ballesteros, Business Operations Manager at Ubimia Mexico, noted that waiting for borrowers to accumulate long periods of delinquency raises recovery costs. He emphasized the importance of utilizing behavioral data to allow institutions to proactively intervene when issues arise. Specialists in financial technology suggest that shifting from reactive to predictive collection methods can help lenders catch early warning signs and prevent further impairment of their portfolios.
Delinquency trends vary by loan category, with microcredits experiencing the most significant annual increase of 1.15 percentage points, followed by a 0.69 percentage point rise in personal loans. Conversely, delinquency rates for automotive loans and credit cards increased modestly, while corporate portfolios remained largely stable, with only a slight variation of 0.14 percentage points.
Industry analysts attribute the rise in consumer non-performing loans to ongoing macroeconomic challenges that have affected household income. Vicente Gómez, Head of Ratings at Moody's Local Mexico, linked this rise to national economic activity lagging behind potential, cumulative inflation effects, and reduced public transfer impacts. Addressing concerns over debt sustainability, Víctor Manuel Herrera, President of the National Committee of Economic Studies at the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF), noted that while the banking sector remains robust, lenders might tighten credit supply to manage rising default risks.
Despite these pressures on credit quality, S&P National Ratings forecasts a growth of 6.0% to 8.0% in total commercial bank credit by 2026, attributed to enduring consumer demand within major banking institutions.
To counter rising default rates while maintaining credit availability, technology providers recommend adopting segmented prevention frameworks. These strategies leverage data analytics and artificial intelligence to categorize borrowers based on various factors, such as payment behavior and individual customer value. Communication efforts begin with automated reminders before payments are due, followed by personalized messages during initial delays and executive intervention tailored to specific risk profiles.
Segmented risk management models adjust based on loan structures, taking into account dynamics specific to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and operational cash flow patterns. In contrast, automotive lending assessments focus on vehicle valuations and collateral recovery feasibility. Overall, the leadership in commercial banking maintains that capitalization standards are sufficiently strong to absorb fluctuations in credit.