Alignment of Public and Private Labor Market Data in New England vs. National Trends

While there has been discussion about how private labor data aligns with public data at the national level, less focus has been given to this alignment in regional contexts, especially in New England, where specific market dynamics may lead to different patterns. During the fall 2025 federal government shutdown, researchers used private labor market data to evaluate economic conditions in New England, observing notable discrepancies from national trends.

Analysis indicates that private labor market data for New England generally show less alignment with public data compared to national trends. Factors such as seasonal adjustments and measurement error may contribute to these discrepancies. For instance, the methods used for seasonal adjustments and the attribution of employment to specific states might explain the greater misalignment in New England than that seen at the national level.

In evaluating private employment data sources, the study focused on the Current Employment Statistics (CES) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and compared it with data from ADP Research Institute and Revelio Labs. This analysis spanned January 2023 to December 2025. Data points were indexed to their January 2023 values for comparative purposes, followed by regression analyses to assess the alignment between these data sources.

Nationally, BLS data indicated a 2.4% employment growth over the period, which was mirrored by ADP. However, Revelio reported a higher growth rate of 2.9%. In contrast, BLS data showed only a 1.0% growth in employment for New England, whereas Revelio's data suggested a much larger growth of 4.1%. ADP data, conversely, indicated a decline of 1.5% in the region.

Regression analyses demonstrated that private employment data align closely with public data on a national scale, producing coefficients of 1.07 for ADP and 0.83 for Revelio. By contrast, the New England data revealed significant misalignment, with coefficients of -0.20 for ADP and 0.27 for Revelio. Overall, these results indicated that misalignment in New England was approximately four to 17 times greater than in national comparisons.

A closer look at state-level data showed varying degrees of alignment, with New Hampshire exhibiting the highest coefficient of 0.73 for overall employment when compared to public data, while Massachusetts had the lowest at 0.06. In the education and health services sectors, data from Maine were most aligned with BLS data, whereas Massachusetts again showed the least alignment.

Job postings data, which also displayed trends parallel to employment data, showed a national decline in job openings of 37.1%. The private sources, particularly Indeed and Revelio, reported more modest declines. In Connecticut, both private sources aligned closely with BLS data, whereas significant divergences were noted in Rhode Island.

Methodological differences between public and private data regarding the scope of employment coverage may contribute to the observed misalignment. The BLS CES encompasses both public and private sectors, whereas ADP focuses solely on the private sector. Revelio's reliance on online professional profiles may yield different insights compared to traditional payroll data.

Seasonal adjustments and area-specific measurement errors were assessed, indicating that variations in seasonal adjustment methodologies could be a factor in the misalignment, particularly in regional employment data. Moreover, yearly revisions to the BLS data were found to slightly affect alignment, signaling a complex interaction between the data sources.

Given the emergence of privately provided labor market data, understanding their strengths and limitations is crucial for regional policy decisions, especially in New England. While these data can offer timely insights, they often deviate from publicly provided data, necessitating caution in their use for regional analyses.