International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva cautioned that delays in productivity gains from artificial intelligence (AI) could lead to negative economic shocks, even as the technology bolsters global growth. Speaking at an IMF-World Bank panel in Bangkok on October 16, 2026, Georgieva emphasized the importance of establishing safeguards for AI to ensure that risks do not outweigh opportunities.
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During the discussion, which included Anthropic co-founder Jack Clark, she stated, "If there are no safeguards, then the risks may exceed the opportunities," highlighting the need for an ethical foundation in AI development.
Georgieva also advocated for a mixed approach involving both industry self-regulation and government oversight from major economies such as the U.S., China, and India. She stressed the necessity of access to electricity and digital infrastructure to ensure widespread benefits from AI.
Harvard economist Dani Rodrik echoed her concerns, warning that disappointing productivity gains could lead to a significant financial correction following extensive investments in data centers.
An IMF report noted alarming financial risks associated with hyperscalers—large cloud service providers—whose reliance on debt for AI infrastructure has surged, with their share of investment-grade bond issuance increasing from less than 1% to 10% over two years.
Georgieva's analysis also flagged risks related to circular financing arrangements where hyperscalers invest in AI developers who subsequently acquire computing capacity from the same providers. The IMF identified around $300 billion in equity investments and $650 billion in debt connected to estimated future revenue of $1.4 trillion across 14 such transactions since 2023.
Moreover, Georgieva warned of the potential fallout from significant earnings disappointments among AI developers, which could impact equity valuations globally. She identified the risk of AI-driven cyberattacks on financial institutions as another immediate threat that could shake investor confidence.
Despite these concerns, the IMF projected that AI could enhance annual global economic growth by approximately half a percentage point over the next decade, contingent on successful productivity improvements. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Undersecretary Erin Browne contended that the IMF should consider AI's potential for positive economic impacts more heavily.