The OECD has updated its growth projections for the global economy, raising its 2026 forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%. This revision, released in an interim outlook on September 23, 2026, reflects the organization’s assessment that the world economy has managed the energy supply disruptions from the Middle East conflict better than previously anticipated.
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Despite this upward adjustment, the 2026 growth rate represents a decline from the 3.4% growth recorded in 2025. The OECD also reduced its 2027 forecast by 0.1 percentage points to 3%.
Growth estimates for major economies were generally increased. The United States is expected to grow by 2.2% this year, and the eurozone by 1%, both increases of 0.2 percentage points. Japan's growth forecast has been similarly raised to 0.8%, while China's projection remains steady at 4.5%. Collectively, the G20 is anticipated to expand by 3.1%.
Within the eurozone, Spain's growth is projected to be 2.6% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, making it the standout among the countries analyzed. Germany's forecast is 1.1% for both years, Italy's is 0.9% and 0.6%, and France is expected to grow by 0.4% and 0.7% in the respective years, with the eurozone as a whole expected to grow by 1% annually.
The rise in energy prices, following strikes on Iran by US and Israeli forces in February, has been offset by various factors. These include substantial oil inventories, increased supply from non-Gulf producers, and government support measures. Moreover, favorable financial conditions, such as rising stock markets and continued access to credit, are providing additional support.
Investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is noted as a contributing factor to increased production and trade, with potential for even stronger growth than projected.
However, challenges remain. Central banks are raising interest rates to combat inflation, which has surged due to high oil and gas prices, with G20 countries projected to experience a headline inflation rate of 4.1% this year and 3% in the eurozone. Additionally, government bond yields in countries like Germany and France have reached multi-year highs, raising borrowing costs for many nations already burdened with high debts.
In Europe, heightened borrowing costs and the need for temporary energy support are exerting further pressure on public finances. The OECD emphasizes that rising bond yields underline the urgent need for improved fiscal policies and government efficiency to ensure long-term debt sustainability and the ability to respond to significant economic shocks. Risks to future growth include a prolonged conflict in the Middle East, potential supply disruptions from a strong El Niño, and the possibility of disappointing returns on AI investments.